THE COST OF CERTAINTY [Manuscript]

2022 - PRESENT

This manuscript offers a strategic assessment of how political and military decision-making will be reshaped as AI tools/decision-support platforms become increasingly prominent. AI or Machine Learning applications offer limited legibility for human oversight, are emboldened by the belief that these systems are superior to humans in assessing information rich environments, and will be increasingly relied upon to overcome our current information glut as the pace of operations and speed of decision-making increase.

This book is the first of its kind to unpack how our belief in the comparative superiority of computational power, which creates what I call the technological certainty fallacy, remains critical for steering the development of AI tools, marketing these platforms’ presumed value to political decision-makers, and driving the integration of these AI tools in increasing high-level decision environments. Beyond the presumed instrumental benefits, these tools will fundamentally alter the logic of strategic exchange and interactions between nations. This book argues that AI tools, because of their proposed benefits, are likely to increase the risk of miscalculation, misperception, and escalation to conflict.